5 min read
The Crooked Coin
You have $100K and a coin that lands heads three times out of four. How much do you bet each flip? On the Kelly criterion, ruin, and how to actually get paid for an edge.
Tag
Risk
4 essays on this topic.
Against the Gods
10 min read
Against the Gods: Dancing With the Unknown
A reflection on the far-reaching themes of Against the Gods: the measure of our ignorance, radical new views of uncertainty, behavioral finance, derivatives, and the frontiers we still cannot model.
Against the Gods
6 min read
Against the Gods: Mastering Uncertainty
How pioneering mathematicians, the birth of insurance, and modern portfolio theory transformed risk from a nebulous concept into a quantifiable asset, and why even our best models sometimes fail.
Against the Gods
4 min read
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Notion of Risk
How humanity gradually overcame fatalism and mysticism to develop the modern concept of risk. Part one of a series, inspired by Peter Bernstein.